12.10.2011

The Rocky Road to Islamabad

Foreign relations between the US and Pakistan have seen its share of apexes and nadirs throughout the course of the short diplomatic history between the two nations. The first-established financial/military assistance pact first established on October 20 October 1947 has since blossomed into an impetuous story of perpetual bickering in a vital relationship which cannot be broken, however imperative such an action may seem to be necessitated.
      In light of the recent incident in which NATO bombers killed 24 Pakistani soldiers stationed at a border checkpoint along the Afghan-Pakistani border, It may seem as if Pakistani-US relations have hit an all-time low. The event even pushed Pakistani Prime Minister Yousaf Gillani claimed, "There would be no more business as usual," between Washington and Islamabad. However, as calamitous as the Pakistan situation may seem, it is nothing we haven't seen before.
     On June 10, 2008, US and Afghan forces pushed Taliban insurgents out of the Afghan Kunar Provence and into what the US military claimed to be Pakistani territory. From there, US drones proceeded to drop precision bombs on the area into which some 24 Taliban soldiers retreated. And although US officials claimed no Pakistani structure was hit, Islamabad insisted the lives of 11 Pakistani soldiers were lost, and that the US's actions were "completely unprovoked and cowardly."
     Furthermore, the exalted killing of the preeminent jihadist Osama bin Laden also evoked tension between Pakistan and the US.  Washington accused Pakistan of perhaps protecting bin Laden in his Abottabad compound, or providing the Al-Qaeda head with intel pertaining to NATO and US movements toward his capture. Naturally, Islamabad denied the accusations, labeling any support of bin Laden as, "baseless speculation." Other nations, from Afghanistan to France to Tajikistan expressed their disbelief in Pakistan's claim to innocence, but they held their ground. As a result, the US suspended approximately a third of its annual financial aid.
     No intense speculation is needed to determine that US relations with Islamabad are, indeed, troubled. But the reluctant peace is held in place by one hesitant premise.
     They need each other.
     From an American perspective, there are two major excuses for supporting Pakistan. One regards Islamabad's nuclear program. Pakistan joined the nuclear weapons program in 1976 (another point of tension between Washington and Islamabad, considering the former halted economic assistance to Pakistan due to their nuclear developments), and still hold an estimate of 100 nuclear warheads. The chilling scenario of a Pakistani fallout due to a full dissolution of American economic support could result in that nuclear arsenal falling into the menacing hands of Islamic terrorist groups, perhaps even Al-Qaeda. Secondly, Pakistan is a major local ally in the volatile Middle East, where the US lacks local support. Losing Pakistan would be potentially disastrous in the War on Terror.
     The excuses from a Pakistani perspective are just as convincing. Since 2002, Washington has provided approximately $12 billion in military support and $6 billion in economic support. Without that support, Pakistan's economy could crumble and its military would be significantly weaker without American support.
     CNN's Fareed Zakaria accurately described the US and Pakistan as "Friends without benefits." US-Pakistani relations are unsteady to say the least, but the truth is that each is vital to the other's survival, however painful their relationship may seem.